What are Mike McGuire's chances of winning the 2026 CA-01 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Mike McGuire a 94% chance (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 94%).

How much money has Mike McGuire raised?

Mike McGuire's campaign has raised $1.8M and has $153K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · CA

Mike McGuire

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Mike McGuire (Democrat) a 94% chance of winning the 2026 CA-01 House race (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 94%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 CA-01 House race	94%	94%	94%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $1.8M
Spent: $1.7M
Cash on hand: $153K
Outside groups for: $474K
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $1.5M from individuals, $300K from PACs. FEC filings for Mike McGuire →

Running against

James Gallagher6%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.