What are Mike Simpson's chances of winning the 2026 ID-02 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Mike Simpson a 95% chance (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 96%).

How much money has Mike Simpson raised?

Mike Simpson's campaign has raised $1.1M and has $429K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · ID

Mike Simpson

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Mike Simpson (Republican) a 95% chance of winning the 2026 ID-02 House race (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 96%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 ID-02 House race	95%	95%	96%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $1.1M
Spent: $794K
Cash on hand: $429K
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $507K from individuals, $612K from PACs. FEC filings for Michael Simpson →

Running against

Elinor Gilbreath5%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.