Republican · KS
Roger Marshall
As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Roger Marshall (Republican) a 67% chance of winning the 2026 Kansas Senate race (Kalshi 66%, Polymarket 68%).
Odds in every market
| Market | Chance | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Kansas Senate race | 67% | 66% | 68% | — |
Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.
Campaign money
- Raised
- $4.0M
- Spent
- $326K
- Cash on hand
- $5.4M
- Outside groups for
- $273K
- Outside groups against
- $4.8M
Through July 15, 2026. $1.7M from individuals, $1.5M from PACs. FEC filings for Roger W Marshall →
Polls
In the 2026 Kansas Senate race, the Parlay polling average has Roger Marshall at 46% against Adam Hamilton at 46%, from 6 polls (newest ended 2026-10-01).
Social buzz
671K interactions with posts about Roger Marshall in the last 24 hours from 431 people; 62% of posts read as positive, down 35% on last week.
- Republican Ex Governors of Kansas Back Democrat Hamilton Over Marshall GOP Rushes in $8 2 Million US Scope TV · youtube-video
- NYT/Siena poll | 9/22-9/30 LV US Senate Kansas 2026 (If election was held today) 🟦Adam Hamilton 32% 🟥Roger Marshall 26% (incumbent) Another candidate 2% Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 · tweet
- NEW POLLING AVERAGE: Kansas Senate 🟦 Adam Hamilton - 45.6% 🟥 Roger Marshall - 45.4% Democrat Adam Hamilton narrowly leads Republican Roger Marshall in our new Kansas polling average. Marshall remains the favorite in the Decision Desk HQ · tweet
Social data from LunarCrush. Posts are what people are saying, not verified facts.
Running against
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
