What are Ron Estes's chances of winning the 2026 KS-04 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Ron Estes a 95% chance (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 95%).

How much money has Ron Estes raised?

Ron Estes's campaign has raised $1.9M and has $1.8M cash on hand, through July 15, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · KS

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Ron Estes (Republican) a 95% chance of winning the 2026 KS-04 House race (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 95%).

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 KS-04 House race	95%	95%	95%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Through July 15, 2026. $312K from individuals, $1.1M from PACs. FEC filings for Ron Estes →

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.