independent · MT
Seth Bodnar
As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Seth Bodnar (independent) a 6% chance of winning the 2026 Montana Senate race (Kalshi 6%).
Odds in every market
| Market | Chance | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Montana Senate race | 6% | 6% | — | ▼ 1¢ |
Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.
Campaign money
- Raised
- $3.2M
- Spent
- $2.3M
- Cash on hand
- $978K
- Outside groups for
- $8.3M
- Outside groups against
- $2.0M
Through June 30, 2026. $3.1M from individuals, $93K from PACs. FEC filings for Seth Bodnar →
Social buzz
4K interactions with posts about Seth Bodnar in the last 24 hours from 27 people; 89% of posts read as positive, down 86% on last week.
- Seth Bodnar New Montana U.S. Senate Race Poll | Kurt Alme | Alani Bankhead Independent Leadership Council · youtube-video
- When Seth Bodnar is still polling 20 pts behind Alme in 2 weeks, will Dems who undermined downballot races because they want to stay on the good side of a retired politician — who won’t share his PAC money — sheepishly p Jesse James Mullen · tweet
- Independent PAC, which has been spending heavily in the #MTSen race for Seth Bodnar, drops $800,000 on a GOTV effort backing @KevinKileyCA in the redrawn #CA06, where he faces former Democratic State Senator Richard Pan Rob Pyers · tweet
Social data from LunarCrush. Posts are what people are saying, not verified facts.
Running against
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
