What are Seth Magaziner's chances of winning the 2026 RI-02 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Seth Magaziner a 98% chance (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 99%).

How much money has Seth Magaziner raised?

Seth Magaziner's campaign has raised $1.4M and has $1.5M cash on hand, through August 20, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · RI

Seth Magaziner

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Seth Magaziner (Democrat) a 98% chance of winning the 2026 RI-02 House race (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 99%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 RI-02 House race	98%	96%	99%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $1.4M
Spent: $747K
Cash on hand: $1.5M
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through August 20, 2026. $777K from individuals, $520K from PACs. FEC filings for Seth Magaziner →

Running against

Victor Mellor2%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.