What are Tom Emmer's chances of winning the 2026 MN-06 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Tom Emmer a 94% chance (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 94%).

How much money has Tom Emmer raised?

Tom Emmer's campaign has raised $9.8M and has $4.5M cash on hand, through July 22, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · MN

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Tom Emmer (Republican) a 94% chance of winning the 2026 MN-06 House race (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 94%).

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 MN-06 House race	94%	95%	94%	▲ 2¢

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Through July 22, 2026. $2.7M from individuals, $2.2M from PACs. FEC filings for Thomas Earl Emmer Jr. →

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.