What are Troy Downing's chances of winning the 2026 MT-02 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Troy Downing a 95% chance (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 95%).

How much money has Troy Downing raised?

Troy Downing's campaign has raised $2.1M and has $650K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · MT

Troy Downing

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Troy Downing (Republican) a 95% chance of winning the 2026 MT-02 House race (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 95%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 MT-02 House race	95%	94%	95%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $2.1M
Spent: $1.6M
Cash on hand: $650K
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $1.2M from individuals, $682K from PACs. FEC filings for Troy Downing →

Polls

In the 2026 MT-02 House race, the Parlay polling average has Troy Downing at 48% against Brian Miller at 26%, from 1 polls (newest ended 2026-09-07).

Running against

Brian Miller5%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.