Daily market report
Election markets on Tuesday, May 26, 2026
Republicans ended the day 52% to win the Senate (Democratic odds up 0.5 points); Democrats ended the day 79% to win the House; the biggest move was SC-06 (South Carolina), where Democratic odds went from 37% to 87%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC-06 (South Carolina) | D 37% | D 87% | ▲ 50.2 |
| MN-02 (Minnesota) | D 64% | D 89% | ▲ 24.7 |
| NJ-09 (New Jersey) | D 56% | D 74% | ▲ 18.3 |
| TX-27 (Texas) | D 32% | D 14% | ▼ 17.8 |
| TX-10 (Texas) | D 29% | D 15% | ▼ 13.8 |
| NM-03 (New Mexico) | D 75% | D 88% | ▲ 13.6 |
| FL-03 (Florida) | D 27% | D 15% | ▼ 12.2 |
| NC-03 (North Carolina) | D 24% | D 13% | ▼ 11.2 |
| VA-07 (Virginia) | D 82% | D 93% | ▲ 10.9 |
| GA-07 (Georgia) | D 25% | D 14% | ▼ 10.8 |
Lead changes
- SC-06 (South Carolina)Democrat now favored: D 37% → 87%
