Daily market report
Election markets on Monday, May 25, 2026
Republicans ended the day 53% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 78% to win the House; the biggest move was NJ-05 (New Jersey), where Democratic odds went from 53% to 86%; 3 races changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NJ-05 (New Jersey) | D 53% | D 86% | ▲ 33.2 |
| MN-02 (Minnesota) | D 90% | D 64% | ▼ 25.3 |
| PA-17 (Pennsylvania) | D 85% | D 64% | ▼ 20.4 |
| IN-05 (Indiana) | D 35% | D 17% | ▼ 18.0 |
| IN-04 (Indiana) | D 28% | D 11% | ▼ 17.5 |
| HI-02 (Hawaii) | D 73% | D 89% | ▲ 16.1 |
| South Dakota Senate | D 23% | D 7% | ▼ 15.7 |
| CA-25 (California) | D 73% | D 89% | ▲ 15.7 |
| TX-31 (Texas) | D 31% | D 17% | ▼ 14.2 |
| MN-06 (Minnesota) | D 36% | D 23% | ▼ 12.7 |
Lead changes
- NY-03 (New York)Democrat now favored: D 49% → 54%
- PA-01 (Pennsylvania)Republican now favored: D 50% → 45%
- TX-35 (Texas)Republican now favored: D 51% → 44%
