Daily market report
Election markets on Wednesday, May 27, 2026
Republicans ended the day 53% to win the Senate (Democratic odds down 1.0 points); Democrats ended the day 79% to win the House; the biggest move was CA-25 (California), where Democratic odds went from 89% to 74%; 2 races changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA-25 (California) | D 89% | D 74% | ▼ 14.9 |
| NY-03 (New York) | D 58% | D 45% | ▼ 13.1 |
| UT-02 (Utah) | D 24% | D 11% | ▼ 12.9 |
| FL-07 (Florida) | D 23% | D 34% | ▲ 11.0 |
| PA-17 (Pennsylvania) | D 65% | D 54% | ▼ 10.9 |
| NM-03 (New Mexico) | D 88% | D 78% | ▼ 10.6 |
| NC-03 (North Carolina) | D 13% | D 23% | ▲ 9.9 |
| MD-07 (Maryland) | D 92% | D 82% | ▼ 9.5 |
| MO-05 (Missouri) | D 36% | D 27% | ▼ 8.8 |
| TX-35 (Texas) | D 51% | D 43% | ▼ 8.6 |
Lead changes
- NY-03 (New York)Republican now favored: D 58% → 45%
- TX-35 (Texas)Republican now favored: D 51% → 43%
