Daily market report
Election markets on Friday, June 12, 2026
Republicans ended the day 56% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 80% to win the House; the biggest move was CA-25 (California), where Democratic odds went from 71% to 91%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA-25 (California) | D 71% | D 91% | ▲ 19.6 |
| UT-02 (Utah) | D 14% | D 26% | ▲ 11.9 |
| NV-01 (Nevada) | D 59% | D 70% | ▲ 11.2 |
| CA-27 (California) | D 76% | D 86% | ▲ 10.5 |
| VA-10 (Virginia) | D 70% | D 79% | ▲ 9.5 |
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 25% | D 35% | ▲ 9.3 |
| NY-21 (New York) | D 30% | D 20% | ▼ 9.1 |
| PA-17 (Pennsylvania) | D 45% | D 53% | ▲ 7.7 |
| IL-04 (Illinois) | D 72% | D 80% | ▲ 7.5 |
| MO-05 (Missouri) | D 37% | D 45% | ▲ 7.4 |
