Daily market report
Election markets on Tuesday, June 16, 2026
Republicans ended the day 57% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 79% to win the House; the biggest move was PA-17 (Pennsylvania), where Democratic odds went from 52% to 88%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PA-17 (Pennsylvania) | D 52% | D 88% | ▲ 35.9 |
| VA-07 (Virginia) | D 86% | D 56% | ▼ 29.6 |
| NY-18 (New York) | D 67% | D 92% | ▲ 24.7 |
| IL-04 (Illinois) | D 72% | D 95% | ▲ 22.9 |
| NJ-09 (New Jersey) | D 63% | D 85% | ▲ 21.9 |
| CA-35 (California) | D 73% | D 94% | ▲ 21.1 |
| NJ-03 (New Jersey) | D 71% | D 92% | ▲ 20.1 |
| CA-25 (California) | D 71% | D 91% | ▲ 19.9 |
| NV-01 (Nevada) | D 60% | D 80% | ▲ 19.7 |
| IN-04 (Indiana) | D 29% | D 10% | ▼ 19.5 |
Lead changes
- TX-35 (Texas)Republican now favored: D 51% → 47%
