Daily market report
Election markets on Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Republicans ended the day 57% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 79% to win the House; the biggest move was VA-07 (Virginia), where Democratic odds went from 56% to 88%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| VA-07 (Virginia) | D 56% | D 88% | ▲ 31.6 |
| CA-35 (California) | D 94% | D 73% | ▼ 20.9 |
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 48% | D 28% | ▼ 20.3 |
| IN-04 (Indiana) | D 10% | D 29% | ▲ 19.4 |
| TX-28 (Texas) | D 63% | D 82% | ▲ 19.3 |
| FL-03 (Florida) | D 12% | D 31% | ▲ 18.5 |
| NJ-03 (New Jersey) | D 92% | D 73% | ▼ 18.1 |
| NM-03 (New Mexico) | D 89% | D 72% | ▼ 17.6 |
| GA-07 (Georgia) | D 15% | D 32% | ▲ 16.9 |
| TX-31 (Texas) | D 16% | D 32% | ▲ 16.9 |
Lead changes
- WI-01 (Wisconsin)Republican now favored: D 51% → 45%
