Daily market report
Election markets on Monday, June 15, 2026
Republicans ended the day 57% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 80% to win the House (Democratic odds down 0.5 points); the biggest move was VA-07 (Virginia), where Democratic odds went from 57% to 86%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| VA-07 (Virginia) | D 57% | D 86% | ▲ 29.2 |
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 49% | D 31% | ▼ 18.6 |
| CA-27 (California) | D 87% | D 70% | ▼ 16.7 |
| MN-06 (Minnesota) | D 33% | D 17% | ▼ 15.5 |
| MN-02 (Minnesota) | D 73% | D 87% | ▲ 14.8 |
| MA-05 (Massachusetts) | D 79% | D 93% | ▲ 14.2 |
| MI-03 (Michigan) | D 70% | D 84% | ▲ 13.5 |
| TX-28 (Texas) | D 64% | D 74% | ▲ 9.5 |
| South Dakota Governor | D 16% | D 7% | ▼ 9.1 |
| NY-19 (New York) | D 69% | D 76% | ▲ 6.4 |
