Daily market report
Election markets on Sunday, June 14, 2026
Republicans ended the day 56% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 80% to win the House; the biggest move was VA-07 (Virginia), where Democratic odds went from 89% to 57%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| VA-07 (Virginia) | D 89% | D 57% | ▼ 31.8 |
| UT-03 (Utah) | D 15% | D 42% | ▲ 27.1 |
| MA-05 (Massachusetts) | D 98% | D 79% | ▼ 19.1 |
| MI-03 (Michigan) | D 88% | D 70% | ▼ 17.5 |
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 36% | D 49% | ▲ 13.5 |
| CA-27 (California) | D 76% | D 87% | ▲ 10.7 |
| NY-04 (New York) | D 83% | D 73% | ▼ 10.1 |
| MN-06 (Minnesota) | D 24% | D 33% | ▲ 8.8 |
| South Dakota Governor | D 8% | D 16% | ▲ 7.8 |
| CT-01 (Connecticut) | D 86% | D 93% | ▲ 7.7 |
Lead changes
- MI-04 (Michigan)Republican now favored: D 53% → 45%
