Daily market report
Election markets on Friday, July 10, 2026
Republicans ended the day 55% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 83% to win the House (Democratic odds down 0.5 points); the biggest move was FL-13 (Florida), where Democratic odds went from 38% to 29%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 38% | D 29% | ▼ 9.2 |
| New Mexico Senate | D 94% | D 90% | ▼ 3.9 |
| KY-06 (Kentucky) | D 32% | D 36% | ▲ 3.7 |
| SC-01 (South Carolina) | D 31% | D 27% | ▼ 3.6 |
| OH-15 (Ohio) | D 29% | D 32% | ▲ 3.6 |
| NY-18 (New York) | D 89% | D 92% | ▲ 3.4 |
| AZ-04 (Arizona) | D 83% | D 86% | ▲ 3.4 |
| NV-03 (Nevada) | D 85% | D 81% | ▼ 3.4 |
| NY-02 (New York) | D 27% | D 23% | ▼ 3.4 |
| MO-03 (Missouri) | D 8% | D 11% | ▲ 3.0 |
