Daily market report
Election markets on Tuesday, July 14, 2026
Republicans ended the day 54% to win the Senate (Democratic odds up 0.7 points); Democrats ended the day 83% to win the House; the biggest move was FL-13 (Florida), where Democratic odds went from 28% to 20%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 28% | D 20% | ▼ 8.6 |
| MO-02 (Missouri) | D 24% | D 21% | ▼ 3.6 |
| MD-01 (Maryland) | D 13% | D 17% | ▲ 3.6 |
| AL-03 (Alabama) | D 6% | D 2% | ▼ 3.6 |
| NV-03 (Nevada) | D 85% | D 82% | ▼ 3.1 |
| NY-02 (New York) | D 26% | D 23% | ▼ 3.0 |
| WA-08 (Washington) | D 91% | D 88% | ▼ 3.0 |
| TN-04 (Tennessee) | D 12% | D 9% | ▼ 2.9 |
| Illinois Senate | D 94% | D 96% | ▲ 2.7 |
| CA-24 (California) | D 95% | D 93% | ▼ 2.7 |
