Daily market report
Election markets on Wednesday, July 15, 2026
Republicans ended the day 55% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 83% to win the House; the biggest move was FL-13 (Florida), where Democratic odds went from 20% to 29%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 20% | D 29% | ▲ 9.0 |
| NY-17 (New York) | D 70% | D 78% | ▲ 7.7 |
| CT-05 (Connecticut) | D 87% | D 95% | ▲ 7.7 |
| TX-24 (Texas) | D 22% | D 15% | ▼ 7.1 |
| TN-07 (Tennessee) | D 14% | D 10% | ▼ 4.4 |
| WI-05 (Wisconsin) | D 7% | D 11% | ▲ 4.0 |
| MD-01 (Maryland) | D 17% | D 13% | ▼ 3.9 |
| OR-05 (Oregon) | D 86% | D 90% | ▲ 3.6 |
| CA-23 (California) | D 7% | D 11% | ▲ 3.6 |
| SC-01 (South Carolina) | D 21% | D 24% | ▲ 3.6 |
