Daily market report
Election markets on Thursday, July 16, 2026
Republicans ended the day 55% to win the Senate (Democratic odds down 0.7 points); Democrats ended the day 83% to win the House; the biggest move was FL-22 (Florida), where Democratic odds went from 51% to 17%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FL-22 (Florida) | D 51% | D 17% | ▼ 34.3 |
| NY-03 (New York) | D 81% | D 85% | ▲ 4.3 |
| NY-19 (New York) | D 82% | D 86% | ▲ 4.3 |
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 29% | D 24% | ▼ 4.1 |
| NH-02 (New Hampshire) | D 88% | D 92% | ▲ 3.7 |
| IA-03 (Iowa) | D 74% | D 70% | ▼ 3.7 |
| PA-01 (Pennsylvania) | D 48% | D 44% | ▼ 3.6 |
| TN-05 (Tennessee) | D 22% | D 25% | ▲ 3.5 |
| New Hampshire Governor | D 24% | D 21% | ▼ 3.4 |
| NY-02 (New York) | D 23% | D 27% | ▲ 3.4 |
Lead changes
- FL-22 (Florida)Republican now favored: D 51% → 17%
