Daily market report
Election markets on Tuesday, July 21, 2026
Republicans ended the day 56% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 84% to win the House (Democratic odds up 0.8 points); the biggest move was Vermont Governor, where Democratic odds went from 9% to 17%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vermont Governor | D 9% | D 17% | ▲ 7.7 |
| PA-10 (Pennsylvania) | D 76% | D 82% | ▲ 6.3 |
| NC-11 (North Carolina) | D 52% | D 58% | ▲ 6.1 |
| TX-10 (Texas) | D 15% | D 10% | ▼ 5.2 |
| OH-07 (Ohio) | D 44% | D 39% | ▼ 4.9 |
| FL-07 (Florida) | D 30% | D 34% | ▲ 4.6 |
| TN-08 (Tennessee) | D 12% | D 8% | ▼ 4.6 |
| CA-45 (California) | D 90% | D 86% | ▼ 4.1 |
| CT-05 (Connecticut) | D 96% | D 92% | ▼ 3.7 |
| NV-03 (Nevada) | D 81% | D 85% | ▲ 3.5 |
