Daily market report
Election markets on Friday, July 31, 2026
Republicans ended the day 55% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 85% to win the House; the biggest move was Alaska Governor, where Democratic odds went from 42% to 37%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Governor | D 42% | D 37% | ▼ 4.9 |
| CA-23 (California) | D 11% | D 6% | ▼ 4.8 |
| CO-05 (Colorado) | D 27% | D 32% | ▲ 4.6 |
| NC-14 (North Carolina) | D 13% | D 17% | ▲ 4.3 |
| TX-31 (Texas) | D 11% | D 15% | ▲ 3.8 |
| FL-22 (Florida) | D 36% | D 39% | ▲ 3.5 |
| MN-01 (Minnesota) | D 22% | D 25% | ▲ 3.2 |
| DE-AL (Delaware) | D 97% | D 94% | ▼ 3.1 |
| NY-02 (New York) | D 10% | D 13% | ▲ 3.0 |
| MD-01 (Maryland) | D 14% | D 17% | ▲ 2.8 |
