Daily market report
Election markets on Thursday, July 30, 2026
Republicans ended the day 56% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 85% to win the House; the biggest move was Texas Governor, where Democratic odds went from 8% to 16%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Governor | D 8% | D 16% | ▲ 8.5 |
| ME-02 (Maine) | D 40% | D 35% | ▼ 4.7 |
| FL-14 (Florida) | D 57% | D 61% | ▲ 4.4 |
| NJ-06 (New Jersey) | D 97% | D 94% | ▼ 3.3 |
| TX-34 (Texas) | D 75% | D 78% | ▲ 3.1 |
| VT-AL (Vermont) | D 94% | D 96% | ▲ 2.9 |
| MI-01 (Michigan) | D 16% | D 13% | ▼ 2.8 |
| MD-01 (Maryland) | D 17% | D 14% | ▼ 2.8 |
| WA-04 (Washington) | D 14% | D 11% | ▼ 2.7 |
| Tennessee Governor | D 6% | D 8% | ▲ 2.7 |
