Daily market report
Election markets on Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Republicans ended the day 56% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 85% to win the House; the biggest move was OH-07 (Ohio), where Democratic odds went from 49% to 59%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| OH-07 (Ohio) | D 49% | D 59% | ▲ 9.9 |
| MT-01 (Montana) | D 31% | D 38% | ▲ 7.2 |
| Alaska Governor | D 46% | D 39% | ▼ 7.0 |
| SC-02 (South Carolina) | D 11% | D 17% | ▲ 6.0 |
| MI-01 (Michigan) | D 10% | D 16% | ▲ 5.9 |
| NY-24 (New York) | D 8% | D 14% | ▲ 5.5 |
| NY-01 (New York) | D 19% | D 24% | ▲ 5.4 |
| OH-15 (Ohio) | D 24% | D 19% | ▼ 5.0 |
| WI-01 (Wisconsin) | D 28% | D 33% | ▲ 5.0 |
| PA-17 (Pennsylvania) | D 94% | D 89% | ▼ 4.7 |
Lead changes
- OH-07 (Ohio)Democrat now favored: D 49% → 59%
