Daily market report
Election markets on Sunday, August 16, 2026
Democrats ended the day 50% to win the Senate and 87% to win the House; the biggest move was MI-04 (Michigan), where Democratic odds went from 56% to 47%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MI-04 (Michigan) | D 56% | D 47% | ▼ 9.1 |
| CO-08 (Colorado) | D 83% | D 75% | ▼ 7.6 |
| MT-01 (Montana) | D 33% | D 39% | ▲ 6.7 |
| NY-04 (New York) | D 84% | D 89% | ▲ 5.1 |
| PA-08 (Pennsylvania) | D 65% | D 60% | ▼ 4.7 |
| NC-11 (North Carolina) | D 59% | D 63% | ▲ 4.5 |
| PA-07 (Pennsylvania) | D 79% | D 74% | ▼ 4.3 |
| NY-03 (New York) | D 81% | D 85% | ▲ 4.1 |
| WI-06 (Wisconsin) | D 9% | D 13% | ▲ 3.7 |
| PA-10 (Pennsylvania) | D 80% | D 77% | ▼ 3.4 |
Lead changes
- MI-04 (Michigan)Republican now favored: D 56% → 47%
