Daily market report
Election markets on Monday, August 17, 2026
Republicans ended the day 51% to win the Senate (Democratic odds down 1.2 points); Democrats ended the day 87% to win the House; the biggest move was NH-01 (New Hampshire), where Democratic odds went from 84% to 69%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NH-01 (New Hampshire) | D 84% | D 69% | ▼ 14.7 |
| PA-08 (Pennsylvania) | D 60% | D 71% | ▲ 11.3 |
| NC-11 (North Carolina) | D 63% | D 70% | ▲ 6.3 |
| CO-03 (Colorado) | D 36% | D 41% | ▲ 5.4 |
| IL-17 (Illinois) | D 95% | D 89% | ▼ 5.4 |
| PA-07 (Pennsylvania) | D 74% | D 69% | ▼ 5.2 |
| OH-01 (Ohio) | D 90% | D 85% | ▼ 4.9 |
| NY-03 (New York) | D 85% | D 81% | ▼ 4.4 |
| WI-08 (Wisconsin) | D 18% | D 13% | ▼ 4.3 |
| Nebraska Governor | D 12% | D 8% | ▼ 3.9 |
