Daily market report
Election markets on Tuesday, August 18, 2026
Republicans ended the day 51% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 87% to win the House; the biggest move was OH-09 (Ohio), where Democratic odds went from 74% to 64%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| OH-09 (Ohio) | D 74% | D 64% | ▼ 10.1 |
| IA-03 (Iowa) | D 74% | D 65% | ▼ 9.0 |
| TX-38 (Texas) | D 9% | D 18% | ▲ 8.9 |
| OH-12 (Ohio) | D 7% | D 14% | ▲ 7.5 |
| AZ-09 (Arizona) | D 4% | D 11% | ▲ 7.5 |
| TX-31 (Texas) | D 9% | D 16% | ▲ 7.2 |
| FL-03 (Florida) | D 8% | D 15% | ▲ 6.6 |
| NV-03 (Nevada) | D 88% | D 93% | ▲ 5.5 |
| MI-04 (Michigan) | D 49% | D 54% | ▲ 5.1 |
| IL-17 (Illinois) | D 89% | D 85% | ▼ 4.8 |
Lead changes
- MI-04 (Michigan)Democrat now favored: D 49% → 54%
