Daily market report
Election markets on Wednesday, August 19, 2026
Republicans ended the day 51% to win the Senate (Democratic odds down 0.5 points); Democrats ended the day 86% to win the House; the biggest move was NH-01 (New Hampshire), where Democratic odds went from 68% to 88%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NH-01 (New Hampshire) | D 68% | D 88% | ▲ 19.6 |
| NY-03 (New York) | D 76% | D 86% | ▲ 10.1 |
| OH-09 (Ohio) | D 64% | D 74% | ▲ 10.0 |
| IA-03 (Iowa) | D 65% | D 75% | ▲ 9.7 |
| FL-03 (Florida) | D 15% | D 6% | ▼ 9.0 |
| OH-12 (Ohio) | D 14% | D 6% | ▼ 8.5 |
| IL-17 (Illinois) | D 85% | D 93% | ▲ 8.3 |
| TX-38 (Texas) | D 18% | D 10% | ▼ 8.1 |
| TX-31 (Texas) | D 16% | D 8% | ▼ 7.3 |
| PA-07 (Pennsylvania) | D 69% | D 76% | ▲ 6.9 |
