Daily market report
Election markets on Saturday, August 15, 2026
Democrats ended the day 51% to win the Senate and 87% to win the House; the biggest move was PA-07 (Pennsylvania), where Democratic odds went from 59% to 79%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PA-07 (Pennsylvania) | D 59% | D 79% | ▲ 19.5 |
| NH-01 (New Hampshire) | D 76% | D 87% | ▲ 10.6 |
| MI-10 (Michigan) | D 58% | D 68% | ▲ 10.3 |
| CO-08 (Colorado) | D 76% | D 83% | ▲ 7.0 |
| TN-05 (Tennessee) | D 6% | D 13% | ▲ 6.4 |
| MT-01 (Montana) | D 38% | D 33% | ▼ 5.6 |
| ME-02 (Maine) | D 41% | D 46% | ▲ 4.9 |
| IL-17 (Illinois) | D 88% | D 91% | ▲ 3.9 |
| WI-01 (Wisconsin) | D 31% | D 28% | ▼ 3.4 |
| FL-18 (Florida) | D 12% | D 9% | ▼ 2.7 |
