Daily market report
Election markets on Friday, August 14, 2026
Democrats ended the day 51% to win the Senate and 87% to win the House; the biggest move was MI-10 (Michigan), where Democratic odds went from 68% to 58%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MI-10 (Michigan) | D 68% | D 58% | ▼ 10.3 |
| NY-21 (New York) | D 19% | D 27% | ▲ 8.0 |
| ME-02 (Maine) | D 34% | D 41% | ▲ 7.0 |
| MI-04 (Michigan) | D 49% | D 54% | ▲ 4.9 |
| NH-01 (New Hampshire) | D 73% | D 76% | ▲ 3.7 |
| NM-03 (New Mexico) | D 91% | D 95% | ▲ 3.6 |
| PA-08 (Pennsylvania) | D 60% | D 64% | ▲ 3.4 |
| NY-19 (New York) | D 88% | D 92% | ▲ 3.1 |
| Ohio Senate | D 51% | D 54% | ▲ 2.7 |
| Ohio Governor | D 52% | D 50% | ▼ 2.7 |
Lead changes
- MI-04 (Michigan)Democrat now favored: D 49% → 54%
