Daily market report
Election markets on Thursday, August 13, 2026
Democrats ended the day 51% to win the Senate and 87% to win the House; the biggest move was PA-07 (Pennsylvania), where Democratic odds went from 75% to 60%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PA-07 (Pennsylvania) | D 75% | D 60% | ▼ 14.9 |
| NH-01 (New Hampshire) | D 87% | D 73% | ▼ 14.7 |
| MI-04 (Michigan) | D 63% | D 49% | ▼ 13.7 |
| TX-15 (Texas) | D 48% | D 54% | ▲ 6.0 |
| Kansas Governor | D 40% | D 35% | ▼ 5.3 |
| CA-45 (California) | D 88% | D 84% | ▼ 3.8 |
| IL-17 (Illinois) | D 92% | D 88% | ▼ 3.7 |
| OH-13 (Ohio) | D 91% | D 88% | ▼ 3.7 |
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 24% | D 27% | ▲ 3.5 |
| OH-01 (Ohio) | D 92% | D 89% | ▼ 3.4 |
Lead changes
- TX-15 (Texas)Democrat now favored: D 48% → 54%
