Daily market report
Election markets on Wednesday, August 12, 2026
Democrats ended the day 51% to win the Senate (Democratic odds up 1.0 points) and 87% to win the House; the biggest move was Wisconsin Governor, where Democratic odds went from 55% to 77%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin Governor | D 55% | D 77% | ▲ 22.1 |
| MI-04 (Michigan) | D 46% | D 63% | ▲ 16.1 |
| OH-09 (Ohio) | D 85% | D 70% | ▼ 15.3 |
| TX-15 (Texas) | D 60% | D 48% | ▼ 12.4 |
| ME-02 (Maine) | D 45% | D 34% | ▼ 11.3 |
| CO-03 (Colorado) | D 27% | D 34% | ▲ 7.2 |
| WI-03 (Wisconsin) | D 77% | D 70% | ▼ 7.0 |
| NJ-09 (New Jersey) | D 85% | D 91% | ▲ 6.2 |
| IA-03 (Iowa) | D 77% | D 72% | ▼ 5.2 |
| MN-01 (Minnesota) | D 23% | D 28% | ▲ 4.8 |
Lead changes
- MI-04 (Michigan)Democrat now favored: D 46% → 63%
