Daily market report
Election markets on Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Democrats ended the day 50% to win the Senate (Democratic odds up 4.2 points) and 87% to win the House (Democratic odds up 0.6 points); the biggest move was Nevada Governor, where Democratic odds went from 53% to 34%; 3 races changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada Governor | D 53% | D 34% | ▼ 19.4 |
| Kansas Governor | D 23% | D 42% | ▲ 19.1 |
| Wisconsin Governor | D 39% | D 55% | ▲ 15.9 |
| Alaska Governor | D 41% | D 56% | ▲ 15.5 |
| OH-09 (Ohio) | D 70% | D 85% | ▲ 14.7 |
| WI-03 (Wisconsin) | D 67% | D 77% | ▲ 9.7 |
| ME-02 (Maine) | D 36% | D 45% | ▲ 9.3 |
| IA-03 (Iowa) | D 68% | D 77% | ▲ 9.1 |
| VA-05 (Virginia) | D 24% | D 15% | ▼ 8.9 |
| MI-04 (Michigan) | D 39% | D 46% | ▲ 7.9 |
Lead changes
- Alaska GovernorDemocrat now favored: D 41% → 56%
- Nevada GovernorRepublican now favored: D 53% → 34%
- Wisconsin GovernorDemocrat now favored: D 39% → 55%
