Kalshi
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
At the release of the national House popular vote data
As of October 5, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor Democrats, 8 to 10% at 28%, ahead of Democrats, 10 to 12% at 23%. $34K traded in the last 24 hours, $2.1M in all.
- Favorite
- Democrats, 8 to 10% 28%
- 24 hours
- down 1 pts
- Traded today
- $34K
- Traded in all
- $2.1M
- Closes
- November 3, 2027
Every outcome (top 6 of 10)
- Democrats, 8 to 10%28%▼ 1
- Democrats, 10 to 12%23%▲ 2
- Democrats, 6 to 8%19%
- Democrats, 12 to 14%10%▲ 1
- Democrats, 4 to 6%9%
- Republicans win5%
4 more outcomes, mostly long shots, are listed on Kalshi.
How the odds have moved
0%25%50%75%100%3:53 AM3:53 PM3:53 AM28% Democrats, 8 to 10%
The line follows the current favorite, Democrats, 8 to 10%. One reading an hour.
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Prices are Kalshi's own (bid/ask midpoint), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
