Kalshi
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?
Friedrich Merz
As of October 5, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor Before Jan 1, 2029 at 92%, ahead of Before Jul 1, 2028 at 87%. $0 traded in the last 24 hours, $13K in all.
- Favorite
- Before Jan 1, 2029 92%
- 24 hours
- no change
- Traded today
- $0
- Traded in all
- $13K
- Closes
- November 1, 2026
Every outcome (top 6 of 7)
- Before Jan 1, 202992%
- Before Jul 1, 202887%
- Before Jan 1, 202881%
- Before Jul 1, 202753%
- Before Apr 1, 202742%
- Before Jan 1, 202711%
1 more outcomes, mostly long shots, are listed on Kalshi.
How the odds have moved
0%25%50%75%100%5:23 AM5:23 PM5:23 AM92% Before Jan 1, 2029
The line follows the current favorite, Before Jan 1, 2029. One reading an hour.
Embed these odds on your site
Paste this into any page. It updates every 10 minutes and links back here. Add ?theme=light or ?theme=dark to the address to fix the colors.
More more politics markets
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?December 31 3%
- Maine-Texas Senate ComboJames Talarico and Troy Jackson 45%
- How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?230-233 18%
- Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/28 - 10/4)Above 150 96%
- Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?30%
- Michigan Senate winner? (Person)Abdul El-Sayed 73%
- How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?Above 52 35%
- Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Oct 9, 2026?James Talarico 85%
Prices are Kalshi's own (bid/ask midpoint), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
