Daily market report
Election markets on Sunday, July 12, 2026
Republicans ended the day 55% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 83% to win the House; the biggest move was NM-02 (New Mexico), where Democratic odds went from 81% to 88%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NM-02 (New Mexico) | D 81% | D 88% | ▲ 6.4 |
| NJ-09 (New Jersey) | D 86% | D 92% | ▲ 5.8 |
| CA-23 (California) | D 14% | D 9% | ▼ 5.4 |
| South Carolina Senate | D 15% | D 20% | ▲ 5.0 |
| CO-08 (Colorado) | D 84% | D 89% | ▲ 4.3 |
| New Hampshire Governor | D 20% | D 25% | ▲ 4.2 |
| MO-02 (Missouri) | D 24% | D 21% | ▼ 3.7 |
| OH-14 (Ohio) | D 13% | D 10% | ▼ 3.5 |
| OH-15 (Ohio) | D 29% | D 32% | ▲ 3.3 |
| KS-03 (Kansas) | D 91% | D 87% | ▼ 3.1 |
