Daily market report
Election markets on Thursday, July 23, 2026
Republicans ended the day 56% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 84% to win the House; the biggest move was CA-45 (California), where Democratic odds went from 87% to 73%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA-45 (California) | D 87% | D 73% | ▼ 13.7 |
| VA-01 (Virginia) | D 51% | D 55% | ▲ 4.6 |
| South Carolina Senate | D 16% | D 13% | ▼ 3.6 |
| OH-10 (Ohio) | D 18% | D 15% | ▼ 3.5 |
| NE-01 (Nebraska) | D 13% | D 16% | ▲ 3.4 |
| MN-02 (Minnesota) | D 87% | D 90% | ▲ 3.3 |
| MO-02 (Missouri) | D 24% | D 21% | ▼ 3.2 |
| NY-01 (New York) | D 27% | D 24% | ▼ 3.0 |
| NY-17 (New York) | D 71% | D 68% | ▼ 3.0 |
| WA-08 (Washington) | D 90% | D 93% | ▲ 3.0 |
