Daily market report
Election markets on Sunday, July 26, 2026
Republicans ended the day 56% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 85% to win the House (Democratic odds up 0.5 points); the biggest move was Rhode Island Governor, where Democratic odds went from 92% to 80%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rhode Island Governor | D 92% | D 80% | ▼ 12.1 |
| CO-08 (Colorado) | D 80% | D 74% | ▼ 5.7 |
| WA-05 (Washington) | D 12% | D 17% | ▲ 4.7 |
| TX-15 (Texas) | D 49% | D 53% | ▲ 4.5 |
| FL-12 (Florida) | D 21% | D 17% | ▼ 3.9 |
| NC-11 (North Carolina) | D 54% | D 58% | ▲ 3.7 |
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 27% | D 23% | ▼ 3.5 |
| NE-01 (Nebraska) | D 16% | D 13% | ▼ 3.4 |
| MI-07 (Michigan) | D 68% | D 65% | ▼ 3.2 |
| WA-07 (Washington) | D 97% | D 94% | ▼ 3.1 |
Lead changes
- TX-15 (Texas)Democrat now favored: D 49% → 53%
