Daily market report
Election markets on Monday, August 3, 2026
Republicans ended the day 54% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 85% to win the House; the biggest move was CA-48 (California), where Democratic odds went from 87% to 90%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA-48 (California) | D 87% | D 90% | ▲ 3.6 |
| TX-15 (Texas) | D 56% | D 59% | ▲ 3.3 |
| KS-03 (Kansas) | D 91% | D 88% | ▼ 3.2 |
| PA-16 (Pennsylvania) | D 14% | D 11% | ▼ 3.2 |
| OH-15 (Ohio) | D 19% | D 22% | ▲ 3.1 |
| NC-11 (North Carolina) | D 55% | D 58% | ▲ 3.0 |
| VT-AL (Vermont) | D 94% | D 96% | ▲ 2.9 |
| New Hampshire Governor | D 21% | D 18% | ▼ 2.8 |
| CA-42 (California) | D 96% | D 94% | ▼ 2.6 |
| OH-07 (Ohio) | D 66% | D 63% | ▼ 2.6 |
