Daily market report
Election markets on Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Republicans ended the day 55% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 85% to win the House; the biggest move was Wisconsin Governor, where Democratic odds went from 50% to 45%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin Governor | D 50% | D 45% | ▼ 5.1 |
| TX-15 (Texas) | D 59% | D 63% | ▲ 4.0 |
| OH-07 (Ohio) | D 63% | D 67% | ▲ 3.6 |
| NE-01 (Nebraska) | D 17% | D 13% | ▼ 3.5 |
| Alaska Governor | D 36% | D 39% | ▲ 3.1 |
| NY-24 (New York) | D 13% | D 10% | ▼ 3.1 |
| FL-04 (Florida) | D 18% | D 21% | ▲ 3.0 |
| NY-19 (New York) | D 88% | D 90% | ▲ 2.8 |
| WA-04 (Washington) | D 14% | D 11% | ▼ 2.7 |
| FL-12 (Florida) | D 18% | D 15% | ▼ 2.5 |
Lead changes
- Wisconsin GovernorRepublican now favored: D 50% → 45%
