Daily market report
Election markets on Thursday, August 6, 2026
Republicans ended the day 54% to win the Senate (Democratic odds up 1.1 points); Democrats ended the day 85% to win the House; the biggest move was CO-03 (Colorado), where Democratic odds went from 33% to 41%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CO-03 (Colorado) | D 33% | D 41% | ▲ 7.9 |
| MI-04 (Michigan) | D 38% | D 32% | ▼ 5.9 |
| TX-31 (Texas) | D 14% | D 10% | ▼ 4.1 |
| NY-01 (New York) | D 24% | D 27% | ▲ 3.6 |
| Arizona Governor | D 80% | D 84% | ▲ 3.2 |
| GA-07 (Georgia) | D 12% | D 9% | ▼ 2.9 |
| NE-01 (Nebraska) | D 13% | D 16% | ▲ 2.8 |
| TX-21 (Texas) | D 11% | D 13% | ▲ 2.6 |
| DE-AL (Delaware) | D 96% | D 94% | ▼ 2.4 |
| Connecticut Governor | D 93% | D 96% | ▲ 2.4 |
