Daily market report
Election markets on Friday, August 7, 2026
Republicans ended the day 54% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 86% to win the House (Democratic odds up 0.5 points); the biggest move was OH-01 (Ohio), where Democratic odds went from 85% to 95%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| OH-01 (Ohio) | D 85% | D 95% | ▲ 10.1 |
| WI-01 (Wisconsin) | D 36% | D 27% | ▼ 9.3 |
| TN-05 (Tennessee) | D 16% | D 9% | ▼ 7.6 |
| TX-35 (Texas) | D 47% | D 54% | ▲ 6.9 |
| CO-03 (Colorado) | D 41% | D 34% | ▼ 6.3 |
| WA-05 (Washington) | D 30% | D 25% | ▼ 5.0 |
| FL-04 (Florida) | D 21% | D 17% | ▼ 3.9 |
| NC-09 (North Carolina) | D 16% | D 19% | ▲ 3.7 |
| MI-04 (Michigan) | D 32% | D 35% | ▲ 3.0 |
| GA-12 (Georgia) | D 18% | D 15% | ▼ 2.9 |
Lead changes
- TX-35 (Texas)Democrat now favored: D 47% → 54%
