Daily market report
Election markets on Sunday, August 9, 2026
Republicans ended the day 54% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 86% to win the House; the biggest move was AZ-08 (Arizona), where Democratic odds went from 19% to 13%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-08 (Arizona) | D 19% | D 13% | ▼ 6.3 |
| FL-25 (Florida) | D 64% | D 69% | ▲ 5.0 |
| OH-07 (Ohio) | D 83% | D 79% | ▼ 4.2 |
| NJ-02 (New Jersey) | D 16% | D 12% | ▼ 3.9 |
| NC-14 (North Carolina) | D 17% | D 14% | ▼ 3.9 |
| SC-02 (South Carolina) | D 16% | D 13% | ▼ 3.6 |
| FL-08 (Florida) | D 11% | D 8% | ▼ 3.0 |
| MO-02 (Missouri) | D 24% | D 21% | ▼ 2.9 |
| AL-02 (Alabama) | D 28% | D 25% | ▼ 2.9 |
| Virginia Senate | D 94% | D 96% | ▲ 2.9 |
