Daily market report
Election markets on Monday, August 31, 2026
Republicans ended the day 51% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 87% to win the House; the biggest move was MI-10 (Michigan), where Democratic odds went from 70% to 66%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MI-10 (Michigan) | D 70% | D 66% | ▼ 4.6 |
| MD-01 (Maryland) | D 10% | D 6% | ▼ 4.5 |
| TX-33 (Texas) | D 95% | D 99% | ▲ 4.0 |
| Alaska Governor | D 50% | D 54% | ▲ 3.6 |
| TN-09 (Tennessee) | D 7% | D 11% | ▲ 3.2 |
| FL-25 (Florida) | D 72% | D 69% | ▼ 2.8 |
| MT-01 (Montana) | D 44% | D 42% | ▼ 2.4 |
| Texas Governor | D 15% | D 17% | ▲ 2.1 |
| PA-05 (Pennsylvania) | D 95% | D 97% | ▲ 1.8 |
| MA-02 (Massachusetts) | D 95% | D 96% | ▲ 1.6 |
