Daily market report
Election markets on Tuesday, September 1, 2026
Republicans ended the day 51% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 87% to win the House; the biggest move was MT-01 (Montana), where Democratic odds went from 42% to 32%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MT-01 (Montana) | D 42% | D 32% | ▼ 9.1 |
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 24% | D 31% | ▲ 7.0 |
| Alaska Governor | D 54% | D 60% | ▲ 6.2 |
| CA-05 (California) | D 9% | D 6% | ▼ 3.5 |
| OH-15 (Ohio) | D 19% | D 22% | ▲ 3.0 |
| FL-25 (Florida) | D 69% | D 67% | ▼ 2.6 |
| MI-10 (Michigan) | D 66% | D 68% | ▲ 2.5 |
| FL-09 (Florida) | D 33% | D 36% | ▲ 2.5 |
| IA-04 (Iowa) | D 7% | D 5% | ▼ 2.2 |
| NY-04 (New York) | D 87% | D 89% | ▲ 2.2 |
