Daily market report
Election markets on Friday, September 4, 2026
Republicans ended the day 51% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 87% to win the House; the biggest move was PA-11 (Pennsylvania), where Democratic odds went from 8% to 4%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PA-11 (Pennsylvania) | D 8% | D 4% | ▼ 4.0 |
| MO-02 (Missouri) | D 27% | D 30% | ▲ 3.0 |
| TX-35 (Texas) | D 62% | D 59% | ▼ 2.7 |
| MI-07 (Michigan) | D 61% | D 59% | ▼ 2.7 |
| KS-02 (Kansas) | D 9% | D 6% | ▼ 2.5 |
| FL-14 (Florida) | D 65% | D 63% | ▼ 2.4 |
| MO-05 (Missouri) | D 84% | D 86% | ▲ 2.0 |
| CA-09 (California) | D 93% | D 95% | ▲ 1.7 |
| NY-19 (New York) | D 91% | D 93% | ▲ 1.7 |
| FL-11 (Florida) | D 14% | D 16% | ▲ 1.6 |
