Daily market report
Election markets on Saturday, September 5, 2026
Republicans ended the day 51% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 86% to win the House (Democratic odds down 0.5 points); the biggest move was VA-01 (Virginia), where Democratic odds went from 55% to 46%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| VA-01 (Virginia) | D 55% | D 46% | ▼ 9.0 |
| MO-05 (Missouri) | D 86% | D 80% | ▼ 6.5 |
| GA-10 (Georgia) | D 9% | D 2% | ▼ 6.2 |
| OK-05 (Oklahoma) | D 14% | D 11% | ▼ 2.7 |
| PA-07 (Pennsylvania) | D 79% | D 76% | ▼ 2.7 |
| FL-18 (Florida) | D 10% | D 7% | ▼ 2.5 |
| TX-35 (Texas) | D 59% | D 57% | ▼ 2.3 |
| PA-11 (Pennsylvania) | D 4% | D 2% | ▼ 1.9 |
| GA-08 (Georgia) | D 6% | D 5% | ▼ 1.8 |
| TX-06 (Texas) | D 8% | D 7% | ▼ 1.7 |
Lead changes
- VA-01 (Virginia)Republican now favored: D 55% → 46%
