Daily market report
Election markets on Thursday, September 3, 2026
Republicans ended the day 51% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 87% to win the House; the biggest move was MO-05 (Missouri), where Democratic odds went from 17% to 84%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MO-05 (Missouri) | D 17% | D 84% | ▲ 66.6 |
| MO-02 (Missouri) | D 23% | D 27% | ▲ 4.8 |
| ME-02 (Maine) | D 47% | D 44% | ▼ 3.0 |
| KS-02 (Kansas) | D 11% | D 9% | ▼ 2.9 |
| IA-03 (Iowa) | D 76% | D 79% | ▲ 2.8 |
| NC-10 (North Carolina) | D 10% | D 7% | ▼ 2.7 |
| OH-09 (Ohio) | D 68% | D 66% | ▼ 2.5 |
| NY-21 (New York) | D 28% | D 26% | ▼ 2.2 |
| IA-01 (Iowa) | D 79% | D 77% | ▼ 2.2 |
| TN-09 (Tennessee) | D 10% | D 8% | ▼ 2.1 |
Lead changes
- MO-05 (Missouri)Democrat now favored: D 17% → 84%
