Daily market report
Election markets on Wednesday, September 16, 2026
Democrats ended the day 57% to win the Senate (Democratic odds up 0.5 points) and 88% to win the House (Democratic odds up 1.6 points); the biggest move was CO-04 (Colorado), where Democratic odds went from 35% to 19%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CO-04 (Colorado) | D 35% | D 19% | ▼ 15.1 |
| CO-08 (Colorado) | D 76% | D 83% | ▲ 6.8 |
| NE-01 (Nebraska) | D 8% | D 14% | ▲ 5.7 |
| MO-02 (Missouri) | D 34% | D 30% | ▼ 4.7 |
| Michigan Senate | D 61% | D 66% | ▲ 4.6 |
| ME-02 (Maine) | D 45% | D 41% | ▼ 4.0 |
| TN-07 (Tennessee) | D 8% | D 5% | ▼ 3.6 |
| MT-01 (Montana) | D 37% | D 34% | ▼ 3.3 |
| NY-01 (New York) | D 28% | D 25% | ▼ 2.8 |
| Nevada Governor | D 48% | D 46% | ▼ 2.8 |
