Kalshi
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
Democratic minus Republican national House popular vote margin
As of October 5, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor Democrats, ≥2% at 96%, ahead of Democrats, ≥4% at 92%. $2K traded in the last 24 hours, $27K in all.
- Favorite
- Democrats, ≥2% 96%
- 24 hours
- no change
- Traded today
- $2K
- Traded in all
- $27K
- Closes
- February 3, 2027
Every outcome (top 6 of 8)
- Democrats, ≥2%96%
- Democrats, ≥4%92%
- Democrats, ≥6%82%
- Democrats, ≥8%70%▲ 4
- Democrats, ≥10%49%▲ 7
- Democrats, ≥12%12%▼ 8
2 more outcomes, mostly long shots, are listed on Kalshi.
How the odds have moved
0%25%50%75%100%11:40 AM11:40 PM11:40 AM96% Democrats, ≥2%
The line follows the current favorite, Democrats, ≥2%. One reading an hour.
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Prices are Kalshi's own (bid/ask midpoint), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
